Rhode Island Heating Oil Prices Could Surge Past $10/Gallon as Iran War Disrupts Global Energy Markets

If you've ordered heating oil recently, you already know: prices have gone through the roof. As of March 31, Rhode Island homeowners are paying between $4.89 and $5.80 per gallon for home heating oil — prices not seen since the energy crisis of the 1970s. Just six weeks ago, the state average hovered around $4.30 per gallon. That's a jump of over 20% in barely a month, and analysts warn the worst may still be ahead.

What's Driving the Surge?

The primary cause is the ongoing military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which escalated dramatically in late February. Following US and Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites, Iran retaliated by effectively shutting down the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply flows.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps declared that "not a litre of oil" would pass through the strait. Tanker traffic dropped to near zero within days. The result has been the largest disruption to global energy supply in modern history, surpassing even the 1973 oil embargo.

The impact on crude oil prices has been staggering. Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel on March 8 for the first time in four years, eventually spiking to $126 per barrel at its peak. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has gained roughly 53% in March alone — its best month since May 2020. Goldman Sachs is now forecasting Brent to average $110 through April.

How This Hits Rhode Island Homeowners

Rhode Island is one of the most heating-oil-dependent states in the country. Unlike regions that rely primarily on natural gas or electric heat, many RI homes — especially older ones — depend entirely on oil deliveries to stay warm. That makes our state uniquely vulnerable to global oil shocks.

Prices on RIOilPrices.com range from $4.89 to $5.80/gal

That means filling a typical 275-gallon tank now costs between $1,345 and $1,595 — up from roughly $1,180 just weeks ago. For families already stretched thin, this is a serious financial blow.

Could Prices Hit $10 Per Gallon?

Unfortunately, the answer is yes — and it's not as far-fetched as it sounds. Bloomberg analysis suggests that if Iran successfully enforces a full, prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz using mines and anti-ship missiles, crude oil could surge toward $200 per barrel. At that level, home heating oil in the Northeast could easily exceed $10 per gallon.

Oil industry executives and analysts are sounding the alarm: if the Strait is not fully reopened by mid-April, supply disruptions will escalate sharply. The US and allied nations have already released 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves — the largest emergency release on record — but that's a temporary stopgap, not a solution.

The path back to normal prices runs through diplomacy. If the US agrees to Iran's demands for a ceasefire and the Strait is reopened to all energy traffic, prices could begin to stabilize. But every week of continued closure pushes us closer to that worst-case $10/gallon scenario.

What Can You Do Right Now?

• Compare prices before you buy. As you can see from the dealer prices above, there's nearly a $1/gallon difference between the cheapest and most expensive options. Use RI Oil Prices to compare real-time quotes from 20+ local dealers before placing your order.

• Buy sooner rather than later. If your tank is below half, consider filling up now. Prices are more likely to rise than fall in the coming weeks.

• Check for assistance programs. Rhode Island's LIHEAP program helps income-eligible households with heating costs. Visit the RI Office of Energy Resources for details.

• Conserve where you can. Lower your thermostat by even 2 degrees, seal drafts, and make sure your heating system is running efficiently.

We'll continue to monitor pricing and update this page as the situation develops. In the meantime, don't overpay — always compare dealer prices before you order.